14, July, 2007

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CHAN AKYA
The robbery of the century

Hardworking Asian savers will see their central banks post billions in losses in the next few years as investments in US subprime mortgage bonds turn to dust. The central bankers allowed themselves to be led by the nose by Western rating agencies and Wall Street investment banks, but ultimately the Asian banks and governments have only their own policy follies to blame. As usual in Asia, nobody will be held accountable, and one of the greatest robberies of our time will be swept under the carpet.
(Jul 13, '07)

A new front opens in Pakistan
The situation is tense in Swat Valley in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province. The military has mobilized in numbers in preparation for a showdown with a banned group seeking to establish sharia law in the country. Its leader, Maulana Fazalullah, who spreads his word through a network of illegal radio stations, tells Syed Saleem Shahzad that he wants peace. Having just had one of its convoys attacked by a suicide bomber, the army will take some convincing. (Jul 13, '07)

An alleged terrorist goes legit
Having spent two years in prison on terror-related charges, Abu Bakar Ba'asyir is considering entering electoral politics, even running for president of Indonesia. The only way his candidacy would gather steam would be by linking voters' dissatisfaction over corruption of the elite with a sense of injustice against Muslims. - Simon Roughneen (Jul 13, '07)

War games, mind games or the real deal?
Israel's failure in Lebanon one year ago humiliated Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and shredded the myth of Israeli military invincibility. Hezbollah remains proud, defiant and active. Round 2 in Lebanon, or war with Syria, whether provoked or orchestrated, might be what Olmert needs to prove his mettle. - Sami Moubayed (Jul 13, '07)

Taiwan's UN bid risks allies' ire
President Chen Shui-ban's drive for UN membership for "Taiwan" could spawn dangerously counterproductive results if powerful Taipei-friendly nations such as Japan and the US are forced to stand with Beijing in opposing it. Is Chen's plan a crude cynical ploy to rally his political coalition, or is it born of deeper convictions? - Ting-I Tsai (Jul 13, '07)

COMMENT
Believing is 'seeing'
A picture may be worth 1,000 words, but without words, pictures can be ambiguous. The famous Robert Capa photo from the Spanish Civil War: a man caught at the instant he is shot, or slipping in a training exercise? Only the caption can tell - if it is honest. Usually the story that accompanies the picture is more important than the picture. - Hans Durrer (Jul 13, '07)

BOOK REVIEW
India's holy grail
Back from Dead by Anuj Dhar
The uncertain fate of revered Indian nationalist "Netaji" Subhas Chandra Bose has long been a cause celebre that has gripped the subcontinent since his sudden disappearance in 1945. In this exhaustively researched book, investigative journalist Anuj Dhar uncovers riveting evidence that goes a long way in unraveling the riddles, myths and cover-ups surrounding Bose's fate. - Sreeram Chaulia (Jul 13, '07)

Move over, Bollywood, The Boss is here
For the first time, an Indian film in a regional language, in this case Tamil, has left Bollywood in the dust. Sivaji: The Boss is packing cinemas across the subcontinent and Asia. The reason: excellent production values and the star power of Tamil actor Rajinikanth. He even has fans in Japan, where is is known as Odoru Maharaj. - Raja M (Jul 13, '07)



Musharraf only over the first hurdle
President General Pervez Musharraf's military operation against the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) has achieved its immediate aim of eliminating a haven for extremists. Tackling the broader problems of radical religious schools and lawlessness in the tribal areas will be Musharraf's defining test. - Philip Smucker (Jul 12, '07)

Pakistan heading for a crackdown
Never before has Pakistan been so important to the United States, mainly to counter increasingly coordinated international moves by Russia and China. Washington therefore needs a power structure in Islamabad that it can manipulate, and President General Pervez Musharraf fits the bill, provided he can overcome the threat of a popular uprising. A military crackdown may be in order. And to shore up Musharraf's support among any wavering generals, he has just received some shiny new American F-16 aircraft, for a "nominal price". -
M K Bhadrakumar (Jul 12, '07)

The world according to Pyongyang
A lecture by a high-level North Korean cadre is instructive of prevailing attitudes. As depicted by Comrade Chang Yong-sun, North Korea is a small but proud state that lives under the constant threat of annihilation by imperialists. Its great goal of national unification is getting nearer, but people should not expect too much: life will not become easy any time soon. - Andrei Lankov (Jul 12, '07)

India pushes people power in Africa
With its massive investments, debt writeoffs, and full-on diplomatic push, China easily holds the upper hand in the race for African influence. But China's "neo-imperialistic" approach could ultimately backfire and India is betting that by giving Africans a greater stake in their future, Delhi, not Beijing, will be the ultimate victor. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jul 12, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Planet Pentagon: The Earth, seas and skies
The Pentagon is one of the world's biggest landlords, with at least 766 bases in the US and around the world, including control of 20% of the Japanese island of Okinawa. In this way, the US avoids colonies, but nonetheless manages to garrison the globe. -
Nick Turse (Jul 12, '07)

Misconceptions in the 'war on terror'
The "global war on terror" is based on fundamental misconceptions: an exaggeration of the threat and a gross misunderstanding of the nature of the terrorists and their motivation. The emphasis on military responses in Afghanistan and Iraq has only swelled the ranks of terrorist organizations. - John Feffer (Jul 12, '07)

Ready, aim, fire and rain
China has never shied from tinkering with nature in an effort to bend it to Beijing's will. Now the powerful Weather Modification Department is marshaling its troops, anti-aircraft guns, rocket launchers, airplanes and scientists in an effort to ensure a sunny opening day for the 2008 Summer Olympics. - Pallavi Aiyar (Jul 12, '07)

ASIA HAND
Cambodia's cowboy capitalism
Cambodia is booming with double-digit growth rates, foreign investment is soaring, inflation is at 3% and oil and gas export dreams may be realized relatively soon. But there's a dark side to Prime Minister Hun Sen's miracle. It has come at the expense of the miserably dispossessed majority, and there are doubts that the ruling elite are willing to change anything. - Shawn Crispin (Jul 12, '07)

Pakistan's post-mortem
While the military solution to the problem of the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad has earned the praise of US President George W Bush, senior people in Pakistan who were involved in trying to prevent the bloodshed are bitter. The death of the deputy head of the mosque, Abdul Rasheed Ghazi, is particularly upsetting, and conspiracy theories abound. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jul 11, '07)

$10bn scramble for India's fighter deal
India's rush to ramp up its military includes the purchase of 126 multi-role jet fighters in a deal worth almost US$10 billion - the world's biggest single fighter contract. The prospect has manufacturers from the US, Russia, Sweden, France and a European consortium salivating. Their competition will be intense, as there will be only one winner of the contract. But if India's past arms procurements are anything to go by, there will also be many Indian winners - the notorious middlemen and agents whose palms have to be greased. - Siddharth Srivastava (Jul 11, '07)

The Chinese dollar hoard thunders forward
From one perspective, the ballooning trade deficit with China is a boon for the United States. The US gets cheap goods; China gets useless paper. But in the real world this paper is not useless, and the growing hoard can be deployed to undermine America's economy further if Washington does not guard the national interest vigilantly. - William Hawkins (Jul 11, '07)

Let's talk about sex in China
Sociologist James Farrer came away from a conference on sexuality in Beijing with some strong impressions. He tells Devin Stewart of the liberalization of sexual mores in China, and the political and social implications of these changes. (Jul 11, '07)

Pakistan's iron fist is to US's liking
Despite being on the brink of an agreement to peacefully end the seven-day siege of the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad, President General Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday suddenly opted for cold steel rather than warm words. Scores of people have been killed in the fierce fighting. Only the president knows why he changed his mind. And maybe Washington too. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jul 10, '07)

SUN WUKONG
China's hidden wealth?
Color it gray

How is it that urban Chinese seem to have so much money to spend when official statistics show them to be poor? They earn "gray income", mostly legal but unreported sources of income such as tips. If the US$4.4 trillion in gray income were part of the official gross domestic product, it would change how people view China. - Wu Zhong (Jul 11, '07)

India's sons live the dream - and wage jihad
Last month's attempted attacks in London and Glasgow exploded the myth that India's Muslims are immune to the siren song of jihadism. Police allege that at the core of the recent conspiracy were Indian professionals who turned into radical fundamentalists in the high-tech capital Bangalore. Indians are shocked, and intelligence authorities have to recalibrate their suspect profiles. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jul 9, '07)

ASK SPENGLER
Lifting the veil,
in liturgical tongues

After a long absence, Agony Aunt Spengler again helps the Abrahamic faiths reconcile with one another, and with Britain's ailing National Health Service, whose physicians are moonlighting in the car-bomb industry. (Jul 9, '07)

For Putin, little but a lobster dinner
Russia's President Vladimir Putin was determined to be flexible when he met US President George W Bush last weekend. But Bush was unyielding, and Putin won little of substance. On the US anti-missile shield to be deployed in Europe - the main bone of contention - Putin's ideas fell on deaf ears. He no doubt was fobbed off with an assurance of expanded dialogue - this while deployment of the shield proceeds apace. Thus, a tricky phase of US-Russia relations is about to begin. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jul 6, '07)

SPENGLER
What they didn't say at Kennebunkport
No doubt Vladimir Putin's visit at the Bush family compound in Maine was a cordial affair; a practical man like the Russian president would not waste words explaining the unexplainable to someone as uncomprehending as his American counterpart. But it is sobering to imagine how the conversation might go if Putin were to tell George W Bush the unvarnished truth. (Jul 2, '07)

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Iran divestment campaign in trouble
Former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had some success in his campaign to persuade US pension funds to divest from Iranian-linked companies. But it is beginning to stall and shows no sign of influencing Tehran. Iran's huge oil and natural-gas potential is too enticing to ignore. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi

US hysteria hikes
China trade tensions
Toxic-food scares, the ever-expanding trade deficit and charges of currency manipulation are adding fuel to the already heated charges by Washington concerning China's "illegal" trade subsidies. The World Trade Organization has been asked to arbitrate, but is Beijing really to blame?


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 FOREX COMMENTARY

If a derivatives debacle were to slow global growth dramatically, and Asia started using its excess reserves to bolster its domestic market in the face of declining Western demand, the US could confound its critics. - Jack Crooks

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Re India pushes people power in Africa [Jul 13] ... Africa needs a different paradigm than India, where the minority benefit and the majority languish. Africa already has that dynamic ... China, on the other hand, is raising living standards of far more people than India ...
May Sage
USA  
   Go to Letters to the Editor





1. Musharraf only over the first hurdle

2. Pakistan heading for a crackdown       

3. Ready, aim, fire and rain

4. Planet Pentagon: The Earth, seas and skies    

5. India pushes people power in Africa

6. The Chinese dollar hoard thunders forward

7. The world according to Pyongyang

8. Pakistan's post-mortem


9. Misconceptions in the 'war on terror'

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